Goldman’s note outlined a range of possible outcomes for the metal, with a baseline forecast for a surge to US$4,000 an ounce by mid-2026; a so-called tail-risk scenario of US$4,500; and an estimate of almost US$5,000 if just 1% of the privately-owned US Treasury market were to flow into gold.
Bullion has been one of the strongest performing major commodities this year, rallying by more than a third and hitting a record earlier this week.
The advance has been powered by central bank accumulation and bets that the Fed will soon start to reduce US interest rates.
Additional support has come more recently as US President Donald Trump moved to assert greater control over the Fed, including a push to oust Governor Lisa Cook.
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“We estimate that if 1% of the privately owned US Treasury market were to flow into gold, the gold price would rise to nearly US$5,000 an ounce, assuming everything else constant,” the analysts said. “As a result, gold remains our highest-conviction long recommendation in the commodities space.”
