European weapons manufacturers from Thyssenkrupp to BAE Systems and smaller drone makers stand to gain the most from Germany’s massive defence-spending splurge, according to people familiar with the matter, after comments by US President Donald Trump raised doubts about the US’s commitment to transatlantic cooperation.
At the top of Berlin’s shopping list are six F127 battleships from Germany’s ThyssenKrupp Marine Systems valued at more than EUR15 billion ($21.82 billion), and 20 added Eurofighter jets from BAE and its partners worth some EUR3 billion, said the people, who spoke on condition of anonymity as the procurement plans aren’t public.
European defence stocks rose in premarket trading Tuesday, with BAE up 1.6% and Thyssenkrupp rising 2.4% on Germany’s Tradegate exchange.
Airbus, which also helps to make the Eurofighter, gained 1.3% while German weapons maker Rheinmetall was 1.1% higher.
The emphasis on European-made gear marks a departure from Germany’s previous EUR100 billion splurge in 2022. A strong “Buy American” component in that debt-financed deal, orchestrated by outgoing Chancellor Olaf Scholz, led to orders for 35 F-35 fighter jets, 60 Chinook transport helicopters made by Boeing and Patriot air-defence systems.
German lawmakers this week are expected to pass sweeping changes to the constitution that will remove borrowing restriction for defence spending in excess of 1% of gross domestic product, or roughly EUR45 billion.
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As most of the EUR100 billion from the special fund to modernise the Bundeswehr armed forces is either spent or earmarked, the new legislation will open the flood gates for additional defence procurement projects of unprecedented scale.
European defence-focused stocks have been among the biggest gainers this year as governments make a more concerted push to increase their military budgets and seek to procure more from their home region.
US arms shipments still make up the majority of exports to NATO countries, meaning Europe has to catch up if it wants to gain a bigger share of the investments.
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Germany’s latest spending plans have been influenced by signs that the US will be a less-reliable partner in Europe’s defence, after the returning US president briefly stopped arms shipments to Ukraine, and threatened not to help NATO allies if they don’t spend more on defence.
His close adviser, Elon Musk, has suggested exiting the post-World War security alliance.
Germany’s defence ministry is poised to start negotiations with Thyssenkrupp Marine to buy six more of the next-generation Fregatte 127 to replace three anti-aircraft frigates of the so-called Saxony class from 2035 onwards, according to the people.
The Thyssenkrupp unit formed a joint venture last year with domestic shipbuilder Naval Vessels Lürssen to pitch for the F127 order. The deal, which could even surpass the targeted price tag of EUR15 billion, is likely to be passed by budget lawmakers in the second half of this year, the people added.
A defence ministry spokesman declined to comment.
Another big order will be the purchase of 20 added Eurofighter jets in a contract worth up to EUR3 billion, the people said.
The Eurofighter is made by a partnership led by Britain’s BAE, Franco-German aircraft manufacturer Airbus and Italy’s Leonardo.
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Scholz announced the intention for the purchase in a speech at the Berlin air show in June 2024, but the order so far was not executed due to disagreements over spending priorities in the outgoing coalition.
Shifting priorities
Some lawmakers had argued that Germany shouldn’t invest too much in fighter jets, after the EUR10 billion purchase of the 35 Lockheed Martin. F35s in 2022 ate up roughly one-tenth of the first special fund.
With budget constraints soon to be lifted, Berlin will now push ahead with the Eurofighter order to balance out its military procurement and put a bigger emphasis on European manufacturers, the people said. In 2020, Germany placed an order for 38 Eurofighter jets worth EUR5.5 billion.
Germany also plans to invest several billion euros into the modernisation of its military satellite infrastructure, the people said. One beneficiary could be OHB, the Bremen-based manufacturer that won a EUR2.1 billion German order last year.
Other spending targets include hundred of millions of euros for artillery ammunition, according to the people, including by exercising options on existing contracts with Germany’s Rheinmetall and others.
Germany also plans more investments in air defence, after large parts of the first fund were spent to buy Iris-T systems from Bavaria-based Diehl, Patriot systems from the US and Arrow 3 from Israel and the US, the people added.
Further billions of euros will be spend on more submarines and a yet to be developed drone strategy which will lead to various orders from German manufacturers like Helsing or Quantum Systems, the people said.
