A Gripen D fighter jet pierces through the clouds above southern Sweden and is soon cruising at nearly the speed of sound. The test pilot begins putting the warplane through its paces.
With a flick of the wrist, the former air force major tips the jet into a descending, sideways turn revealling Gotland, the strategic Swedish island that has periodically drawn Russian encroachment. The vertical climb that follows pins a Bloomberg reporter onboard to his seatback, and the plane levels off. Then the afterburner kicks in, and an automated voice announces: “Transonic.” The Gripen hits Mach 1 at 768 miles per hour, just half its top speed.
The Gripen, made by Sweden’s Saab AB, would be the country’s first line of domestic defence should hostilities break out with an antagonistic Russia, about 40 minutes away at cruising speeds. But as essential as it is to Sweden, the fighter has struggled to gain sales from other countries: Saab hasn’t won a major export order since Brazil signed up for a batch of 36 jets in 2014, while rivals have locked in scores of sales.
The drought is set to finally end, after Thailand and Colombia decided in the past year on Gripen purchases. As they negotiate contracts, Saab is also fielding interest from Peru, the Philippines, and entertaining a possible 25% upsizing of Brazil’s order. The program is gaining momentum, according to Saab Chief Executive Officer Micael Johansson.
“It’s a more intensive phase right now than in a while,” he said in an interview.
The conditions for Gripen sales haven’t been better in a very long time. Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine has heightened Europe’s focus on territorial security, while President Donald Trump has prodded NATO allies to boost military spending, even as he raises doubts about US commitment to the region’s defence.
See also: Market resilience challenged by Trump's weekend tariff salvo
As European governments supersize defence budgets, some are considering alternatives to American-made weapons such as Lockheed Martin Corp.’s F-35. Portugal will take into account “the predictability of our allies” in weighing the F-35 against locally made fighters, its defence minister said in March. Switzerland’s F-35 deal is wobbling over financial terms.
The Saab jet’s affordability over its life cycle and proven reliability have led a growing number of casual browsers to seriously consider buying, Johansson said. “We of course notice some worrying about how much you can trust the US,” he said. “If countries want to consider a dual fleet, we’re willing to discuss it.”
Sweden has been building fighter jets since the 1940s, in keeping with its tradition of self-reliance and non-alignment. Yet the independent streak has put the Gripen at a disadvantage in export sales since its debut in the mid-1990s, according to Saab executives. Two competing European fighter jets are sponsored by larger countries that are longtime members of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization — the UK, Germany, Italy and Spain for the Eurofighter Typhoon, and France for Dassault Aviation SA’s Rafale.
See also: Goldman strategists raise Asia stock targets, upgrade Hong Kong
All are so-called 4.5-generation jets, a step beyond the conventional fourth-generation fighters that dominated the 1980s and ’90s. The capabilities of the three jets are considered similar — the Gripen gets high marks for cost-effectiveness, networking capacity, sensors and being able to operate from short or austere runways. The Typhoon, manufactured by BAE Systems Plc, Airbus SE and Leonardo SpA, and the Rafale are comparably fast but are much heavier and can carry more fuel and weapons.
Within Europe, none of the three has come close to the US F-35, the only true fifth-generation fighter jet with its advanced stealth capabilities, network integration and greater overall combat effectiveness. It has 13 European customers — including Sweden’s neighbours Finland, Denmark and Norway — with half of them poised to buy more.
By comparison, Saab has leased Gripens to the Czech Republic and Hungary, while Greece and Croatia have purchased the Rafale, and the Typhoon has only been acquired by Austria in the region, outside of its four sponsor countries.
Customers may consider the F-35, with its stealth capabilities, to be more future-proof than 4.5 and fourth-generation aircraft. Saab has long argued, however, that its aircraft's sensors, including high-powered radar that can spot distant targets and guide weapons to attack them, make it a tough match for fifth-generation fighters.
Globally, Saab has trailed the others in export sales by wide margins. Overall export orders for the Gripen stand at one-ninth the level of the F-35A Lightning II, and significantly lag the Rafale and the Typhoon.
Gripen Lags Far Behind Fighter-Jet Rivals | Total export sales for selected European and US models
To stay ahead of Singapore and the region’s corporate and economic trends, click here for Latest Section
Kostas Tigkos, head of markets forecast for electronics and weapons at Janes Group, said the flyaway cost for the latest generation of Gripen jet would be in the US$80 million to US$90 million range, and noted that the F-35's cost is lowered by the fact it is in full-rate production. Experts consider the Rafale and Eurofighter to be more expensive options, though pricing is bespoke and confidential, and many deals include long-term services — making comparisons hard to pin down.
Like other European defence stocks, Saab shares have been on a tear in recent years amid investor expectations that weapons makers will benefit from a renewed focus on security.
Saab executives are optimistic about Gripen’s prospects, especially as countries consider the drawbacks of relying on the US. European governments are poised to spend hundreds of billions of euros to re-arm — even trillions over the next decade — and there’s a growing call to shop locally.
Ordering American defence equipment used to be considered safe, even a guarantee of friendship, said Elisabeth Braw, senior fellow at the Atlantic Council in Washington. That’s changed, given Trump’s diminished support for Ukraine. “This is a fairly rude awakening.”
Still, Braw cautioned that Saab’s window of opportunity could very well be short-lived, given the not-insignificant chances that relations with the US suddenly improve. “Any signs of US backtracking would be met with enthusiasm in every European capital,” she said. “But orders already made would of course stay put.”
More countries have started to consider mixed fighter-jet fleets, said Mikael Franzén, Saab’s chief marketing officer for the Gripen program. Saab is also weighing changes to its sales process, and expects the jet’s procurement time-frame to shorten.
Historically, a large portion of European spending on military equipment has gone to the US, said Sheila Kahyaoglu, an analyst at Jefferies LLC in New York. She sees that diminishing as Europe supplies more of its own fighter aircraft over time. “The US will still supply missiles, air defence, which is where the US really excels,’’ she said in a Bloomberg TV interview.
To be sure, shaking loose an F-35 customer is a tall order, given the added costs for training, maintenance and ensuring equipment is compatible.
Allies seeking to become less dependent on the US will also need to balance that desire with maintaining a good relationship, said Jan Techau, Berlin-based director at Eurasia Group. Even so, he said, “trust in the US has diminished, and I don’t believe that it will ever fully return to pre-Trump levels.”
A Gripen E fighter jet at Saab’s Linkoping, Sweden, facility. Photographer: Erika Gerdemark/Bloomberg
Saab is now selling the single-seat E and two-seater F versions of the Gripen; the current two-seater Gripen D in the June 3 test flight is expected to remain in Swedish use through the mid-2030s.
In Europe, the F-35 was chosen by Finland, Canada and Switzerland in competitions in recent years. Finland cited the Lockheed jet’s front-line fighting capability, recon and survival scores, as well as its potential to be updated through at least 2060.
Switzerland selected the F-35 in 2021 after its voters rejected the Gripen in 2014 over concerns that a purchase would be expensive and unnecessary. Now there are diplomatic talks under way to resolve differences over the US jets’ price.
The Gripen is also seeing renewed hopes with Canada after being edged out by the F-35 for an 88-jet order in 2023. That was prior to trade tensions with the US in Trump’s second term, and his suggestion that Canada become the 51st state.
In March, Prime Minister Mark Carney started a review of the contract for the 72 F-35s Canada hasn’t legally committed to paying for. One factor will be whether Lockheed will pledge to locate more manufacturing and design in Canada, after Saab offered to build Gripens there.
“Then we weigh it against alternatives, including the Saab Gripen,” Carney said in May.
