“The important issue for the 2020s is how the world economies cope with inflation,” said Douglas McWilliams, the CEBR’s deputy chairman. “We hope that a relatively modest adjustment to the tiller will bring the non-transitory elements under control. If not, then the world will need to brace itself for a recession in 2023 or 2024.”
The forecast is in line with estimates of the International Monetary Fund, which also predicts global GDP measured in dollars and in current prices will pass US$100 trillion in 2022.
In its annual World Economic League Table, the CEBR also predicted:
China will overtake the U.S. in 2030, two years later than forecast a year ago
See also: Trump says he is reluctant to keep raising tariffs on China
India will regain sixth position from France next year and become third largest economy in 2031, a year later the previously predicted
The U.K. is on track to be 16% larger than France in 2036 despite Brexit
Germany will overtake the Japanese economy in 2033
Climate change will lower consumer spending by US$2 trillion a year on average through 2036 as companies pass on the cost of decarbonizing investment
Photo by Cameron Venti on Unsplash
