(Nov 6): AP Moller-Maersk A/S improved its full-year profit guidance and the forecast for global container market expansion, driven by a surge in Chinese exports.
The global container market will expand about 4% this year, the Copenhagen-based company said in a statement on Thursday. That compares with a previous forecast of 2% to 4%.
Maersk’s underlying earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization will be in a range of US$9 billion to US$9.5 billion in 2025, versus a prior guidance that put the low end at US$8 billion. Analysts on average estimated US$9.11 billion.
“Exports out of Far East Asia, and especially China, continue to be the main driver of solid volume growth,” the world’s largest listed shipping line said. “Imports remain robust in Europe, Africa, Latin America and West Central Asia.”
Maersk represents a bellwether for global trade that’s undergoing massive gyrations as the US administration reshapes the rules by which it does business with the world.
In that vein, “volumes into North America contracted, particularly from China to the US”, Maersk said.
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Rather than legal battles over tariffs, “what is important to follow is the underlying demand from the US consumer”, chief executive officer Vincent Clerc said in an interview on Bloomberg TV. “So far it has been surprisingly resilient compared to what a lot of analysts have predicted.”
Maersk has proved to be fairly resilient to macroeconomic blows. The company has said that while tariffs in isolations are negative for the industry, they have enabled container lines to provide new services for their customers whose supply lines are becoming more complicated.
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Earnings per share came to US$69 in the third quarter, beating the average analyst estimate of US$62. A year ago earnings per share had been US$193.
“The performances from peers have been mixed and therefore it shows strength that Maersk can raise its expectations,” Per Hansen, an investment economist at Nordnet, said in a note.
The Red Sea disruption is expected to last for the full year, Maersk said. That’s helped with some of the vessel overcapacity globally, raising freight rates earlier in the year. More recently, the cost of carrying goods has fallen.
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