Iran and Israel appeared to be nearing a pause in their 12-day war after President Donald Trump announced a surprise ceasefire in a conflict that saw key Iranian military leaders and scientists killed, US bombing of Iranian nuclear sites and a salvo of missiles launched at Qatar.
The specific timing of the pause — and Israel’s response to Trump’s announcement — remains uncertain, but tensions seemed to be settling. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said in a post that his country, which has seen its defenses significantly degraded, had no intention to keep retaliating against Israeli attacks after the early morning hours.
“Officially, Iran will start the CEASEFIRE and, upon the 12th Hour, Israel will start the CEASEFIRE and, upon the 24th Hour, an Official END to THE 12 DAY WAR will be saluted by the World,” Trump said on social media.
While Israeli officials remained silent overnight, a senior White House official said Trump brokered the ceasefire in a direct conversation with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Monday. Vice President JD Vance, Secretary of State Marco Rubio and special envoy Steve Witkoff held both direct and indirect talks with the Iranians about the proposal, the official said.
Israel agreed to the ceasefire as long as Iran did not launch further attacks, and the Iranian government signalled it would abide by those terms, according to the official.
Markets responded quickly, despite the uncertainty and lack of details. Global benchmark Brent crude fell almost 5% at the start of Asian trading. S&P 500 futures rose 0.5%, while stocks advanced across Asia. The dollar weakened and gold fell.
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“For now, I think this is going to hold, and I think you will have an end to the war,” said Dennis Ross, who was President Bill Clinton’s envoy to the region and is now a fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy. “Iran has no interest in resuming anything soon.”
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The developments came about two days after the US suddenly entered the conflict directly by launching a major bombing operation against Iranian nuclear facilities at Fordow, Natanz and Isfahan. Trump said the strikes “completely and totally obliterated” the sites, though battle damage assessments continue and the whereabouts of Iran’s enriched uranium stockpile isn’t known.
Trump had warned Iran late Saturday that if a peace deal wasn’t reached quickly following the strikes that the US would go after other targets in Iran with “precision, speed and skill.”
Tehran vowed to respond to the unprecedented US bombing in a manner of its choosing. But Iran appeared to opt for a mostly symbolic response that might only make sense in the byzantine world of Middle East politics: by firing missiles at one of its closest regional partners, Qatar, which hosts the Mideast headquarters for US Central Command.
Qatar said the Iranian missile barrage was intercepted and the base had been evacuated in advance.
Iran’s move on Monday appeared to be “a largely symbolic retaliation,” said Ziad Daoud, Bloomberg Economics’ chief emerging-market economist. “Plenty of warning was given — Qatar shut its airspace and the US issued warnings to citizens.”
While Iranian state TV said the missile barrage “forced a ceasefire on the enemy,” some Iranian officials also suggested the move had a performative element to it. The number of missiles fired matched the number of bombs deployed by the US against the nuclear sites, and Iran’s state-run IRNA media said the Qatar strike “poses no danger” to a “friendly and brotherly country.”
A diplomat briefed on the talks said Trump had spoken with Qatar’s Emir and informed him the US got Israel to agree to a ceasefire, and asked for help persuading Iran to do the same. Iran later agreed, according to the diplomat, who asked not to be identified discussing private conversations.
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Ahead of one of the deadlines laid out in the phased ceasefire announcement, local media in Iran reported intensified Israeli attacks early Tuesday, including in Tehran, before tapering off by 4am local time.
In his announcement, Trump went as far as predicting that a peace agreement between Israel and Iran would be long-lasting, despite decades of enmity.
“I think the ceasefire is unlimited — it’s going to go forever,” Trump said, adding that he sees the war as being completely finished and does not believe Israel and Iran “will ever be shooting at each other again.”
Missing uranium
Many questions remain, including the state of Iran’s uranium stockpile and whether any ceasefire will lead to discussions about Iran’s nuclear program. The country, which has denied it’s seeking an atomic weapon, has refused to give up the right to enrich uranium, a condition the US has insisted upon.
There’s also no guarantee the truce will hold if Iran tries to repair the nuclear facilities that were hit by Israeli and US strikes. Israel says its war against Iran aims to prevent the country from acquiring atomic weapons, a risk also cited by Trump to justify US involvement.
Speaking to Fox News after Trump announced the ceasefire, US Vice President Vance said that the US bombing over the weekend had met its objectives.
“We know that they cannot build a nuclear weapon,” Vance said, adding that Iran’s existing stock of highly enriched uranium was “buried” by the attack. International monitors have said they don’t know where that material is after Iran said earlier this month it would move it.
“If Iran is desperate to build a nuclear weapon in the future, then they’re going to have to deal with a very, very powerful American military,” Vance said.
