UBS Group became the latest bank to raise its price outlook for gold on increasing chances of a protracted global trade war — a scenario that analysts expect will continue to drive investors to scoop up more of the ultimate haven asset.
Bullion is set to trade at US$3,200 an ounce in the next four quarters — an upward revision from the bank’s previous long-held forecast of US$3,000 — with an escalating trade conflict underscoring the precious metal’s role as a store of value in uncertain times, analysts including Wayne Gordon and Giovanni Staunovo, said in a note on Monday.
The bank pointed to US President Donald Trump’s plan to impose both broad reciprocal tariffs and additional sector-specific tariffs on April 2 as a looming risk event that could spur ongoing haven demand across markets. Gold — which breached the key psychological threshold of US$3,000 an ounce for the first time ever on Friday — will also benefit from a worsening outlook for the US economy, with traders now pricing in additional interest-rate cuts by the Federal Reserve as concerns about a recession rise.
“In other words, we are seeing a shift from a ‘Trump put’ to a ‘Fed put’,” said the analysts. “We continue to believe allocating around 5% of a USD balanced portfolio to gold is optimal from a longer-term diversification standpoint.”
UBS joins a number of other banks that have in recent weeks hoisted their price targets for the yellow metal. Last week, Macquarie Group forecast prices would spike to US$3,500 an ounce in the second quarter, while BNP Paribas raised its outlook to show average prices well above US$3,000.
Stronger inflows into bullion-backed exchange-traded funds have also started to materialize, the UBS analysts said, adding that ongoing demand for these investment vehicles remains a key requirement for prices to go even higher. Robust appetite from central banks will also continue to act as a “crucial” structural support, the analysts said, pointing to signals that purchases “could be again close to the levels of recent years — around 1,000 metric tons annually.”
