Future climate talks will be difficult without the US’s participation, but Minister for Sustainability and the Environment Grace Fu expects that middle powers, provinces in various countries and even industry bodies will step up to lead in the coming years.
“[The] absence of the Trump administration will be missed,” says Fu on a panel organised by the Singapore Business Federation on March 17. “But more importantly, I think the world order — that chaos or rewriting of world order — will also probably present itself in the COP process. So, that will be difficult going forward.”
Speaking at the “COP29: Navigating Climate and Business in 2025” event at SGX Centre, Fu says delegates at the United Nations’ annual climate summit used to look forward to meetings between the US’s Special Presidential Envoy for Climate John Kerry and his Chinese counterpart Xie Zhenhua.
“They could make things work, so they could actually come in together, had nice statements that basically talked about how they will cooperate on climate, despite the fact that [the] Biden administration was already taking a certain stance towards China. But these two, when they met, you sort of looked forward to some sort of declaration and statements to say that, 'Okay, they will cooperate in certain ways',” says Fu, who took on the sustainability portfolio in July 2020.
However, Xie retired after COP28 in December 2023, and Kerry followed suit in March 2024. Their successors have not provided as strong a “guidance” thus far, says Fu.
She adds: “Without the sort of political leadership at the very top, we see leadership coming [from the] next level. Provinces [are] taking a key interest; countries, probably the middle powers, [are] taking an interest in this; and also sectors [are] taking a keen interest.”
See also: Bill Gates’ climate group Breakthrough Energy lays off US, Europe policy teams
Member airlines of the International Air Transport Association (IATA), for example, committed in 2021 to achieving net-zero carbon emissions from their operations by 2050. Singapore Airlines is an IATA member and shares the same net-zero target.
Elsewhere, the International Maritime Organization’s member states aim to reach net-zero emissions from international shipping by or around 2050, and have also set interim targets for 2030 and 2040.
Less target-setting, more target-hitting
See also: World must prepare to fight climate change without US, says UK
That said, parties have clinched “noteworthy” global targets at recent COP summits, says Fu. These “very workable targets” include doubling the global average annual rate of energy efficiency improvements by 2030 and tripling renewable energy capacity globally, she adds.
“These are very clear proclamations out there that I hope sectors pay attention to. So, if you are someone that’s thinking about investing or lending to a project that goes against this direction, I think there will be impediments. There will probably be an additional cost of capital or loans because there’s inconsistency with the direction that the sector is going,” says Fu.
Without strong political leadership on climate issues, Fu thinks there will be reduced emphasis on “setting more ambitious targets”. “That’s going to be quite difficult, given the lack of leadership in the room.”
Instead, it is important to work to achieve the targets that have already been set, says Fu, citing how Singapore submitted its 2035 Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) in February. As one of only 18 countries to follow through on this target-setting commitment as at end-February, Singapore has pledged to reduce emissions to between 45 and 50 million tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent (MtCO2e) in 2035.
“From Singapore’s point of view, I would like to see more countries submitting their NDCs. So the fact that we have 18 [countries doing so], that’s really not very good,” she adds. “I think we need to make sure that countries that signed up for the Paris Agreement will do their part to deliver on their promises and to really find ways to translate targets [and] translate promises into actions and real-life implementation.”
About the Paris Agreement
The US became a signatory to the Paris Agreement on climate change mitigation and accepted it in 2016. Parties to the Paris Agreement are obliged to submit their NDCs every five years.
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US President Donald Trump signed an executive order on Jan 20, his very first day in office, stating “the United States will cease all implementation of the Paris Agreement”. However, this does not withdraw the US from the underlying UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), the 1992 treaty that established the international climate negotiation process.
Should Trump propose to withdraw from the UNFCCC, however, he would require a two-thirds majority from the 100-seat Senate. The Republican Party has 53 members in the current session, while the Democratic Party has 45 members. Two members are independents.
Read more about last year’s COP29 in Azerbaijan:
- After a year of hard climate talks, ‘minilateralism’ is an alternative (December 2024)
- COP29 deal: Inside the frantic manoeuvre that saved climate talks at a cost (November 2024)
- COP29 ends with deal on climate finance after bitter fight (November 2024)
- COP29 close to carbon deal as questions loom about market integrity (November 2024)
- COP29 summit puts trillion-dollar climate financing on table (November 2024)
- COP29 unlikely to meet financing needs due to geopolitical tensions, fiscal priorities: BMI (November 2024)
- Climate-hit nations wait years for US$370 mil fund to deliver (November 2024)
- ‘Potential windfall’ for emerging markets as COP29 carbon market deal works to improve integrity: BMI (November 2024)
- COP29 clash brews as Saudis resist restating fossil fuel pledge (November 2024)
- Temasek-backed Pentagreen to manage Fast-P’s Green Investments partnership, seeking to deploy US$1 bil (November 2024)
- BlackRock, MAS spearhead collaboration on blended finance debt initiative (November 2024)
- US will stay in global climate fight despite Trump, says top official (November 2024)
- COP29 begins with ‘breakthrough’ on carbon market rules, but climate groups criticise lack of scrutiny (November 2024)
- What are COP meetings for? Will this one make a difference? (November 2024)
- UN biodiversity summit COP16 ends in limbo as countries spar over funding (November 2024)
- COP29 Presidency hosts Pre-COP discussions in Baku (October 2024)
- COP29 Presidency to convene ministerial dialogue on climate finance goal today (September 2024)
- Azerbaijan will fund four members of each Small Island Developing State to attend COP29 (September 2024)
- COP29 to call for sixfold increase in global energy storage (September 2024)
- Azerbaijan proposes US$1 bil Climate Finance Action Fund, replacing planned fossil fuel levy (July 2024)
- COP29 Presidency aims to enhance ambition, enable action (July 2024)
- COP29 Presidency sets out agenda, emphasises upcoming work on New Collective Quantified Goal (June 2024)
- COP29 Presidency hosts climate finance dialogue in Washington (April 2024)
