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China’s southbound bond outflows hit highest since 2022

Bloomberg
Bloomberg • 1 min read
China’s southbound bond outflows hit highest since 2022
Yields in the nation’s benchmark 10-year bonds have plunged over 30 basis points to around 1.65% since the beginning of December. Photo: Bloomberg
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Chinese sovereign bonds’ falling yields are driving onshore investors to actively hunt for overseas alternatives with higher returns.

Capital outflows from mainland China via its Southbound Bond Connect program totaled nearly 52 billion yuan ($9.68 billion) in December, the highest since August 2022, according to Bloomberg-compiled data. The program allows mainland investors to invest in the Hong Kong bond market. 

“Investors needed to diversify their investments,” said Qi Sheng, an analyst at Orient Securities.

A bond bull run in China last year drove the yields to record-low levels, making dollar bonds and Dim Sum bonds attractive to Chinese investors looking for higher yields. 

Yields in the nation’s benchmark 10-year bonds have plunged over 30 basis points to around 1.65% since the beginning of December, dragged by poor domestic consumption and expectations for more monetary easing to boost the sluggish economy. China’s yield discount to the US also widened to a record earlier this month, amplifying the allure of foreign assets. 

See also: Negative narratives hide China’s quality

With analysts expecting the People’s Bank of China to further ease monetary policy, some investors see yields heading toward 1% or lower. 

Chart: Bloomberg

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