Benchmark US yields have soared to near 4.70% on Tuesday from a September low of 3.60% as investors brace for inflationary policies under Donald Trump’s second US presidency. The economy’s resilience has spurred traders to push back expectations on the Federal Reserve’s next quarter-point interest rate cut to July, prompting a rethink on just how high yields can go.
Options markets are also flashing the potential for a spike in 10-year yields to 5% — a level not seen since October 2023. Closely-watched non-farm payrolls data due Friday may give Treasury traders another reason to sell should the data beat estimates.
Citi’s Wieting doesn’t have 5% yields as a base case. The firm sees benchmark yields ending the year around 4.75%, and the Fed funds rate at 3.75%.
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Others like BlackRock Inc.’s Navin Saigal also see higher US bond yields as attractive.
“The yield back up is of course a little painful,” Saigal, head of fundamental fixed income, Asia Pacific, said on Bloomberg Television. “But in some ways it could also be viewed as a gift — there’s still a lot of cash sitting on the sidelines and now this cash can now be put to work.”
