Thai Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra is fighting to hold on to power less than a year since taking office, after leaked comments critical of the military triggered a political crisis.
The 38-year-old leader, the youngest prime minister in Thailand’s history and the third member of the Shinawatra family to serve as leader, lost her coalition’s second-largest party this week, leaving her coalition with a razor-thin majority in Parliament.
As allies consider their next moves, pressure is mounting on Paetongtarn to resign or dissolve the lower house and call new elections.
She has apologised for the leaked phone call with former Cambodian leader Hun Sen and urged unity, but additional street protests demanding her resignation are planned in Bangkok in the coming days.
Still, Thai financial markets have been rattled by the prospect of prolonged political deadlock and worsening economic uncertainty.
Here are the possible scenarios that could play out in the coming days or weeks:
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Paetongtarn resigns
Paetongtarn could resign to ease political unrest and take responsibility for her leaked phone call. A strategic exit may allow her party, Pheu Thai, or a coalition ally to nominate a new leader, preserving the current government without the delays of a fresh election.
Her resignation would trigger a vote in the 495-member House of Representatives to select a new prime minister from a list submitted before the 2023 general election. A candidate must secure majority support. Until then, Paetongtarn’s Cabinet would serve in a caretaker role.
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Potential successors include: Pheu Thai’s Chaikasem Nitisiri, despite recent health concerns; Bhumjaithai Party leader Anutin Charnvirakul, whose party just exited the coalition; and United Thai Nation’s Pirapan Salirathavibhaga.
Former Prime Minister and coup leader Prayuth Chan-Ocha is also eligible, though no longer active in politics.
Snap election
The opposition People’s Party is calling for the dissolution of the House of Representatives and an early election, well ahead of the next scheduled vote in 2027. Opposition leader Natthaphong Ruengpanyawut said a reset could prevent further instability or even a military coup.
A snap election may become likely if the ruling Pheu Thai Party sees no viable candidate to replace Paetongtarn. However, the party may avoid that option given the fallout from the leaked phone call scandal.
Fresh elections also risk prolonged policy paralysis. A vote must be held within 45 to 60 days of a royal endorsement of dissolution, but forming a new government could take months due to coalition bargaining before a prime ministerial vote occurs.
Military coup
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Despite assurances from the army chief about protecting democracy, concerns are mounting over a possible military intervention.
Thailand has seen about a dozen successful coups since ending absolute monarchy in 1932. The two most recent in 2006 and 2014 toppled governments led by Paetongtarn’s father, Thaksin, and aunt, Yingluck.
Analysts say the army has gained public support for its handling of border tensions with Cambodia, while Paetongtarn’s government is viewed as overly deferential. A recent poll showed 86% of respondents had confidence in the army, compared to 31% for the government when it comes to the issue of dealing with the Cambodia standoff.
Rising street protests may give the military a pretext to intervene under the guise of restoring order.
Hold out
Paetongtarn’s best hope is to hold her coalition together. But her narrow majority could hinder legislative progress and invite strong resistance from the opposition.
If United Thai Nation exits the coalition, Paetongtarn would lead a minority government. She could still survive until Parliament reconvenes in early July to vote on key bills, including casino legalization and the national budget, both requiring majority support.
Pheu Thai may use the time to woo opposition lawmakers. But failure to pass major legislation would likely leave Paetongtarn with no choice but to resign or call new elections.
