Now, under the weight of trade-war pressures, regional trade spats and a global economic slowdown, that deadline is looking less realistic.
“If you’re not done in November, you don’t get an RCEP,” Deborah Elms, executive director of the Asian Trade Centre, a Singapore-based think tank, said in an interview Wednesday. “It’s very hard to take on liberalisation moves in a recession.”
Negotiators already had resigned themselves to making little progress this year as a spate of elections -- including in India, Indonesia and Thailand -- interrupted progress. Elms sees fewer catalysts for a deal, and even more obstacles, in 2020.
Some economies in the region are already seeing early signs of recession. Next year, you’ll have “economies going south and supply chains getting ruptured,” said Elms, who has participated in almost all of the 27 rounds of RCEP negotiations.
