Electronics exports grew from a low base while non-electronics grew at half the pace in February, stated the release by Enterprise Singapore on April 17.
Personal computers (PCs), disk media products and integrated circuits (ICs) were the lead contributors for electronics exports while ships & boats, non-monetary gold and pharmaceuticals led non-electronics exports.
In March, Singapore’s NODX expanded for nine of the top 10 markets, led by Indonesia, Taiwan and South Korea with growths of 63% y-o-y, 45.7% y-o-y and 21.6% y-o-y respectively. The rest of the NODX markets also registered double-digit y-o-y growth.
However, NODX to the US fell to just 5.7% in March, down from 21.5% y-o-y in February. This was due to non-electronics, which fell to 5.4% from 23% in February, while electronics NODX remained steady at 7.6%.
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OCBC lowers 2025 NODX forecast to -1% to 1% y-o-y
“This suggests that US private consumption may generally be softening,” says Selena Ling, chief economist and head of global markets research and strategy at Oversea-Chinese Banking Corporation (OCBC).
Including the continued slump in NODX to China, reflecting the country’s slowing growth momentum, Ling believes the situation may worsen before it gets better due to the reciprocal tariffs announced by the US on April 2.
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The tit-for-tat tariffs between US and China is also likely to weigh on business and consumer confidence, Ling adds.
“While China’s 1Q GDP growth surprised on the upside at 5.4% y-o-y (1.2% q-o-q seasonally adjusted or s.a.), the external environment remains very challenging due to the policy uncertainties,” she writes. “Note the non-electronics exports to China continued to shrink by 33.3% y-o-y in March.”
With “clear” downside risks to Singapore’s NODX growth from here and the trade tensions between US and China, things are likely going to be “downhill from here”.
NODX growth in 2H2025 is also likely to be contractionary in y-o-y terms, especially given the high base in 2H2024, Ling estimates.
With this in mind, the economist has lowered her full-year NODX forecast to -1% to 1% y-o-y in 2025, down from 2% to 4% previously.
“Note the World Trade Organization (WTO) has significantly downgraded its global merchandise trade from 3% to 0.2% y-o-y, stemming largely from escalating trade tensions including the intensifying US-China trade war which could lead to an expected 81% drop in their bilateral merchandise trade, ceteris paribus,” says Ling.
She adds that trade in North America is also expected to decline by 12.6% y-o-y this year, compared to the 2.3% y-o-y expansion in 2024. In Asia, trade is likely to slow to 1.6% y-o-y, down from the 8.0% y-o-y growth last year.
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“If there is broader spillover of policy uncertainty, the WTO tips an even sharper drop of 1.5% y-o-y in 2025, albeit it tips a rebound to 2.5% in 2026,” Ling warns. “The WTO also warned that such economic decoupling could cut global GDP by up to 7% in the long term.”
With the shift from a rules-based system to a deals-based trading system, Singapore, which is a trade, transport and logistics hub, will be “vulnerable to the ripple effects of the global trade whiplash and growth slowdown”, says Ling.
Maybank expects NODX to slow to around 1% in 2025, believes NODX could contract in 2H2025
Maybank Securities economists Chua Hak Bin and Brian Lee expect Singapore’s full-year NODX to grow by around 1%, at the lower end of Enterprise Singapore’s projected range of 1% to 3%.
“NODX risks are on the downside, if the trade war intensifies,” the economists write, adding that there may be adjustments made to the official 2025 NODX forecast given the evolving tariff situation.
In their view, Singapore’s export growth is likely to turn negative in 2H2025 if the US’s “aggressive” 145% tariffs on China and the reciprocal tariffs on the rest of the world remain in place.
“Nonetheless, exports should receive reprieve in the second quarter amid the 90-day reciprocal tariff pause for countries other than China,” they write. “Manufacturers in trading partners are rushing orders and frontloading shipments to the US during the 90-day window, which may boost demand for intermediate inputs and components from Singapore."
RHB downgrades NODX growth to 0%
Barnabas Gan, RHB Bank Singapore’s group chief economist & head of its market research team, has downgraded his 2025 estimate to 0% from 2% previously.
“Since our last update on March 17, we have already cautioned against our full-year NODX outlook of 2.0%,” Gan writes. “Suffice it to say global trade prognosis has since taken a negative turn following US-led reciprocal tariffs announced on April 3.”
Gan’s new estimate also comes with downside risks as he remains “cautious” over a potential escalation of US-led protectionist policies in the second half of this year.
“Sectors such as machinery & transport and chemicals & related products will see [the] most negative impact,” he writes.
While markets may see a slight reprieve with tariffs postponed for 90 days from April 10 onwards, Gan says it is likely that Singapore may sink into a technical or full recession given its key growth pillar, which has structurally been reliant on global trade and the strength of its externally-facing industries.
RHB believes that the tariffs are likely to escalate once the 90-day period is over.
UOB lowers NODX growth to -4%
United Overseas Bank’s (UOB) economist Jester Koh has downgraded his NODX growth to -4% in 2025 from 1.5% previously.
Koh’s estimate, which is the most negative among the analysts featured here, factors in “intermittent back-to-back seasonally-adjusted sequential contractions, with risks tilted to the downside given the latest round of tariff escalations surpassed the previous episode in speed, breadth and intensity”.
This excludes any subsequent de-escalations that could happen ahead of the 90-day pause, which is slated to expire on July 9.
He expects pharmaceuticals and semiconductors exports to face additional downside risks should the US eventually follow-through with more sector-specific tariffs. “[This is] likely via Section 232 of the 1962 Trade Expansion Act on national security grounds, where investigations have already been initiated according to US Federal Register Filings on April 14”.
1Q2025 resilience ‘unlikely to last’: Oxford Economics
Oxford Economics economist Sheena Yue believes the exports resilience seen in 1Q2025 is likely to “fade” by the middle of the year as the outlook “darkens” from the increased US tariffs
“Our estimate of price growth suggests March's contraction in real NODX was due to outsized falls in non-electronics exports. In contrast, electronics exports, roughly a fifth of NODX, expanded m/m. Throughout 1Q2025, electronics export volume accelerated compared to 4Q2024, thanks to still solid electronics demand,” Yue writes.
Looking ahead, Yue believes the rising uncertainty will “significantly impact” business and consumer sentiment although she sees some “very near-term strength” as companies in the US front load their orders in anticipation of potential tariffs on the semiconductors and pharmaceuticals sectors, as well as the higher “Liberation Day” tariffs, which have been paused.
“That said, Singapore benefits from an established re-exporting sector and a lower 'Liberation Day' tariff rate. Therefore, while export growth may slow, a collapse this year is improbable,” she says.
Downward revision by Enterprise Singapore seems 'likely', says DBS
DBS Group Research's senior economist Chua Han Teng says a downward revision by Enterprise Singapore appears to be "likely". The government agency had stated in its release that it will adjust its 2025 NODX forecast where necessary given the evolving tariff situation, Chua notes.
The way he sees it, the likely downgrade will reflect the weaker external demand prospects amid an "increasingly protectionist global landscape due to rising tariffs". "Any downward revision of Enterprise Singapore’s exports expectations should align with the weaker official GDP growth outlook for 2025 compared to earlier projections," he says, adding that the WTO already downgraded its world merchandise trade volume projection to a decline of 0.2% for 2025 on April 16, as it anticipates slower growth in Asian trade compared to its previous expectations.
The senior economist also sees "significant downside risks" to Singapore's exports in 2025, although he stopped short of downgrading his own estimates.
"The downside risks include potential US tariffs on pharmaceutical and semiconductor products, the highly uncertain outcome of reciprocal tariffs negotiations, and escalating trade war between the US and China, all of which would significantly dampen future external demand," says Chua. "In the very near-term, the US administration’s 90-day reciprocal tariffs pause to all economies hit by these levies on Liberation Day except China could result in temporary trade diversion to regional exporters as they take advantage of the lower baseline US tariff rate of 10%, compared to much higher reciprocal tariffs that are currently suspended."
