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Sembcorp finds a floor, STI breaks out, Sunpower surges

Goola Warden
Goola Warden • 3 min read
Sembcorp finds a floor, STI breaks out, Sunpower surges
Sembcorp appears to have found a floor at $6, while the STI breaks out of an ascending right triangle indicating a new high.
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Technically, Sembcorp Industries appears to have found a floor at the $6 area. Both quarterly momentum and 21-day RSI have stopped falling and are attempting a rebound. Although the main support is at $5.80, the market has changed its mind and has provided buying demand at $6 following its disappointing results announced on Aug 8.

Since Aug 8, three analysts downgraded Sembcorp to a "hold" or "neutral" from earlier bullish outlooks and recommendations. The selling that started on Aug 7 continued until Aug 18. In that time, Sembcorp fell from $7.80 to $6.01 almost non-stop. It appears that the bulls and stale bulls are likely to have exited by now. Currently, price action is in a narrow sideways range, and volume has dwindled. These are usually signs of a bottom. On Sept 1, Sembcorp announced it won a bid to build an 85 megawatt-peak floating solar photovoltaic system on Pandan Reservoir from the PUB.

Elsewhere, UOL Group was one of the top gainers on Sept 5, closing the week at $7.37, but down 8 cents week-on-week. The charts look somewhat ambiguous. Technically, 21-day RSI has fallen, setting prices up for a negative divergence. Volume has eased as prices consolidated. Although the uptrend remains in force, the chart pattern does not look particularly bullish in the short-term.

On Sept 5, CLSA initiated coverage of UOL with an "outperform" and a target of $10.15. As of June 30, UOL’s NAV stood at $13.59. The trigger for the outperformance, according to CLSA, is likely to be the redevelopment of Marina Square, which DBS Group Research thinks will add 3x to the site’s value, and the potential IPO of a REIT. UOL’s management has not ruled out listing a REIT but neither has it said it would list a REIT. It all depends on market conditions, they said. UOL is the largest developer (priced in SGD) by market cap.

Elsewhere, Sunpower rose by 23.5% on Sept 5. Whether this solicits a query remains to be seen. It may not. Its RSI is at 85, an all-time high and very overbought. There was nothing spectacular about its results, with 1HFY2025 net profit up 13.2% y-o-y to RMB138 million. It is possible that Sunpower has been swept up by the euphoria over A-shares, or perhaps it may even decide to list on the A-share market.

See also: Why has SATS underperformed the STI and the market? Elsewhere, REIT Index is set for higher levels

The Straits Times Index broke out of an ascending right triangle on Sept 1. The triangle is a continuation pattern. Volume did not expand on the breakout, which it should have done according to the theory. n the other hand, volume did not particularly decline during the formation of the ascending right triangle. The breakout indicates an upside of 4,500. Support is at the breakout level of 4,280. The upside could be supported by a further rally in the developers and REITs given that the risk-free rate is at 1.85% as of Sept 5 compared to 2.88% on Jan 2. However, the rate of decline has slowed considerably, and the risk-free rate may have reached a temporary floor.

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