Quarterly momentum in falling, ADX is rising and the DIs are negatively placed. However short term indicators may be sufficiently oversold by July 12-13 to trigger a rebound, with resistance may materialise at the 200-day moving average.
The STI is not looking strong. Its direction depends on whether it can hang on to its 50- and 100-day moving averages which have drawn together, with the 50-day at 3,145 and the 100-day moving average is at 3,125 compared to the STI’s level of 3,131. Should the 50-day fall below 3,125, a negative signal would have formed.
In the meantime, the STI has establiahed a sideways range with support at 3,092, and resistance at 3,158.
While the HSI is being buffeted by its H-shares, in particular China-based tech stocks, the STI has some form of stability from the resilient performance of the local banks and the large-cap REITs. In addition, the STI’s Directional Movement Indicators are neutral, with ADX flipping downwards, and the DIs staying neutral-to-positive. Quarterly momentum is relatively neutral. There again, a breakout on the upside is a tall order given the neutral stance of the medium term indicators and lack of buying volume.
