The group’s overall weaker performance y-o-y can be attributed to Singapore seeing stronger visitorship and tourism spending during last year’s Chinese New Year festive season and the relaxation of visa regulations between China and Singapore last February.
On the same day as its 1QFY2025 business update announcement, Genting Singaporeannounced the retirement of Tan Hee Teck, CEO of GENS and Resorts World Sentosa (RWS). He will depart from all his executive and board roles held in the group from May 31. Lee Shi Ruh, who has been with the group for 15 years, will be appointed as the new CEO of RWS, while Tan Sri Lim Kok Thay, GENS’ current executive chairman, will assume the role of acting CEO.
Following the announcements, analysts are cautiously optimistic about GENS.
DBS Group Research is keeping its “buy” call, but is still reviewing its target price. In its April 24 report, DBS had a target price of 95 cents on GENS.
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With adjusted ebitda of $236 million, accounting for 22% of DBS’s FY2025 overall estimates, GENS is currently tracking below expectations, compared to the pre-Covid first quarter contribution range of 25%–29%.
“The outlook may remain challenging, with Trump’s tariff policy adding a layer of macroeconomic uncertainty across the region. Nonetheless, we believe the company remains on track to deliver a stronger 2HFY2025, supported by the launch of multiple new attractions in the early third quarter. This period has historically been seasonally strong pre-Covid,” says DBS, while expecting growth to pick up from 3Q2025 with the opening of Weave, Oceanarium and The Laurus luxury hotel.
While the leadership transition appears abrupt in timing, it may be linked to CEO Tan’s increasing involvement in national initiatives such as the Singapore Economic Resilience Taskforce. “We expect the company to commence a formal search for a new CEO, but do not anticipate any major shift in strategic direction, particularly about existing capex plans,” adds DBS.
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On the other hand, UOB Kay Hian (UOBKH) is keeping its “buy” recommendation but lowering its target price of 90 cents from $1.12. For analyst Jack Goh, the recent 1QFY2025 results were also below expectations.
Goh notes that Singapore’s tourist arrivals posted healthy growth trajectories in 1Q2025, thanks to recent mutual visa exemption agreements and festivities. This is despite slower visitations in March, which have normalised from a high base in 1Q2024, which featured Taylor Swift’s Eras Tour.
However, he remains cautious on macroeconomic headwinds and intensifying competition. “Despite remaining optimistic on higher visitations throughout 2025, we assess that consumer sentiment and average spending in RWS may be negatively affected by economic uncertainty from US’s volatile tariff policies which may impact business volume from regional countries such as China and Indonesia,” says Goh, adding that RWS’s competitor Marina Bay Sands’ (MBS) has a structurally more strategic city-centre location and the recent completion of its renovation of its about 1,850 hotel rooms may continue to pose stiff competition for RWS.
As Goh sees it, the full launch of RWS 1.5 with multiple crowd-drawing attractions is a crucial re-rating catalyst, such as Illumination’s Minion Land in Universal Studios Singapore, Oceanarium and its Waterfront development.
As for the CEO’s resignation, Goh sees limited impact. “We opine that the change of helm has a limited impact on GENS, given that both Lim and Lee are already well involved in GENS’ daily operations and business strategies,” he says.
With resilient cashflow delivery, Goh anticipates that management now has more flexibility to better utilise its sizeable capital, which includes net cash of $3.58 billion as of 4QFY2024. “Although the group has indicated its interest to potentially participate in the bid for a Thailand integrated resort (amid legalisation), we do not rule out the possibility of higher dividend payouts given the sizeable cash pile,” says Goh.
On the other hand, Maybank Singapore is reiterating its “buy” call and $1.01 target price on GENS. The 1QFY2025 earnings were in line with analyst Yin Shao Yang’s estimates. Core net profit in 1QFY2025 of $150.3 million (–40% y-o-y, +5% q-o-q) was within expectations at 25% of Yin’s full-year estimate. As a secondary check, 1QFY2025 revenue of $626.2 million (–20% y-o-y, +2% q-o-q) and 1QFY2025 Ebitda of $235.8 million (–36% y-o-y, +5% q-o-q) were also in line at 26% and 24% of Maybank’s full-year estimates, respectively.
“Going into 2Q2025, we expect operations to be seasonally slower post-Chinese New Year in 1Q2025. We do not get the feeling from management that the short-lived trade war between the US and China will have a marked impact on VIP volumes in 2Q2025,” says Yin.
He adds: “Going into 3Q2025, we expect operations to be stronger. By then, the Singapore Oceanarium and the 183-suite The Laurus hotel will open. The latter is especially important as it will add to the room inventory to house VIP and premium mass players.”
