They remain positive about the company’s longer-term prospects, and in the near term, they are cheered by Wimar’s 72% y-o-y jump in core net profit to US$357 million, which exceeded some of their expectations due to higher sales and improved crushing margins.
Jacquelyn Yow of CGS International, in her Oct 31 note, flags that numerous issues remain, ranging from potential land confiscation to ongoing investigations into rice mislabelling and the potential reclamation of a portion of the previous biodiesel subsidy by the government.
However, from her perspective, the fact that Wilmar’s acknowledgement of these issues will likely reduce investor uncertainty and limit knee-jerk reactions to share-price movements when these cases conclude.
Yow is maintaining her “add” call, with better feed and industrial segment margins, and improved commodity prices expected to drive earnings recovery in FY2026–FY2027. As a result, she has raised her target price to $3.60 from $3.30.
Similarly, UOB KayHian’s Lester Siew has in his Oct 31 note kept his “buy” call along with a slightly raised target price of $3.50, from $3.45 previously.
Despite the stronger underlying earnings, Siew reduced Wilmar’s forecast earnings for FY2025–FY2027 by 14%, 13% and 8% respectively, as he tones down margin assumptions for Wilmar’s feed & industrial products segment, while also incorporating higher net interest expenses following its US$712 million payment for the cooking oil case in Indonesia.
Meanwhile, RHB Bank Singapore has upgraded Wilmar from “sell” to “neutral”, with a higher target price of $3.00 from $2.50, following the 3QFY2025 results that came in above expectations.
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The higher target price was established after removing the discount for the ongoing case overhang, while forecast earnings for FY2025–FY2027 were increased by 8%, 13.2% and 11.2%, respectively, to reflect higher feed and industrial volumes and margins.
In its Nov 3 note, RHB says it has moved past the negative news flow and investors are now more focused on the company’s earnings recovery. The management, according to RHB, does not expect further significant impact from the ongoing cases, which range from rice labelling, biodiesel processing fees and landbank.
Last but not least, Hussaini Saifee of Maybank Securities has maintained his “hold” call and increased Wilmar’s target price from $3.00 to $3.12, following his upward revisions to earnings projections for FY2025–FY2027 by 3% to 4%.
Saifee pointed out that Wilmar’s China operations showed a broad recovery, which was led by healthier food demand, while Vietnam remained the best-performing market across oil, rice and flour.
According to Wilmar’s management, the strong soybean crush margins seen in 3Q2025 are expected to soften in the near term until Brazil’s new crop arrives. Palm oil output stays flat due to the prior drought and replanting efforts.
The analyst also highlighted that Wilmar’s downstream refining and oleochemical segments remain profitable, and its central kitchen operations in China are expected to turn profitable next year. However, the dividend for 2025 might be lower due to the cash flow impact from Indonesia.
Last but not least, OCBC Investment Research warns that the near-term reputational concerns could weigh on investors’ sentiment. Nonetheless, OCBC is also becoming a bit more positive on Wilmar, expecting the the resolution of the regulatory issues in the next few months.
“We maintain our long-term positive outlook on Wilmar’s core operations and expect earnings to recover in FY2026, supported by stable crush margins and stronger demand from China. After adjustments and rolling forward our valuation to FY2026, we raise our fair value estimate from $3.54 to $3.58,” says OCBC.
