With this, the analyst sees investing opportunities in themes such as supply chain relocations, China stimulus and domestic spending.
Cash-flow-rich, secular theme-linked sectors such as industrials, telecommunication companies (telcos), land transport, healthcare and small- and medium-sized caps should also be “relative beneficiaries”.
In addition, the risks of seeing more rate cuts could be a tailwind for Singapore REITs, especially those with domestic exposure, while banks, on the other hand, may see stress from tighter margins. That said, the visibility of high capital returns could provide some offset, says Wickramasinghe.
In a separate report dated April 3, Maybank’s team of economists led by Chua Hak Bin, believes that the US Federal Reserve will cut its policy rate by 50 basis points (bps) in 2025 as the tariffs and other measures from the US will likely hurt growth and unemployment.
See also: CGSI prefers defensive stocks, believes negative spillover is likely from tariffs
“The Fed rate cuts and lower Asean inflation will open the door for more Asean central banks to ease, including Indonesia (-50 bps), Philippines (-50 bps), Thailand (-50 bps), Vietnam (-25 bps) and Singapore in 2025,” the economists write. “Fiscal stimulus may be more limited given the higher public debt and deficit positions, with the exception of Singapore.”
To this end, Wickramasinghe has identified Singapore-listed stocks Singapore Technologies Engineering (ST Engineering), Sembcorp Industries , Raffles Medical Group , ComfortDelGro (CDG), CapitaLand Integrated Commercial Trust (CICT), Frasers Centrepoint Trust (FCT), Singapore Telecommunications (Singtel), CSE Global and ISOTeam, as well as US-listed Sea Limited and Grab as his “Trump tariff winners”.
In his view, ST Engineering will benefit from a global upcycle in defence spending as well as corporate restructuring, which could further optimise its capital returns, while Sembcorp should see “significant earnings visibility” from contracted utilities and the energy transition growth.
Raffles Medical and CDG, which are domestic operators in healthcare and transport, should be less impacted by the export tariffs while e-commerce players like Sea and Grab may see market share gains as customers use their platforms as cheaper alternatives despite possible weaker demand in the near term.
Furthermore, REITs, especially those with domestic exposure like CICT and FCT could benefit from the falling rate environment while Singtel should benefit from defensive cash flows and limited US export exposure.
Finally, small- and medium-sized caps like CSE and ISOTeam are likely to benefit from multiple secular themes linked to infrastructure spending, decarbonisation and domestic US capacity.
On the whole, even though Trump’s tariffs are “not that bad” for Singapore, Wickramasinghe warns that the “secondary impact from a global growth shock needs to be watched”.
“However, we see a silver lining from Singapore’s fiscal health, which gives dry powder to cushion the blow. Plus, there are opportunities to accelerate infrastructure spending for more relief. Singapore may likely remain a destination for safe haven flows, and projects such as the Johor Singapore Special Economic Zone (JS-SEZ) could become strategic advantages in garnering share in supply chain relocations,” he says.
Chua and team have lowered their growth forecast for the Asean-6 to 4.2% in 2025, down from 4.7% on the back of the tariffs. They have also lowered their forecast to 4.2% in 2026 from 4.7% previously. The Asean-6 refers to the top six economies within the region – Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam.
“Export and investment growth will likely be lower than previously projected,” the team writes. It has also lowered its US GDP growth forecast to 1.7% in 2025 from 2% previously. China’s GDP forecast has also been lowered to 4.2% from 4.5% before.
Chart: Maybank Securities
