The Urban Redevelopment Authority (URA) released data on Singapore’s August monthly home sales on Sept 15, which came in at 2,338 units, inclusive of 196 units of executive condos (ECs).
Excluding ECs, August private home sales totalled 2,142 units, up 128% m-o-m and expanding tenfold from August 2024 levels.
Projects that sold well during the month include Springleaf Residence, River Green Promenade Peak and Canberra Crescent Residence, which made up 80% of total monthly sales.
Projects situated in the Outside Central Region (OCR) garnered a 54% share of monthly sales in August, while those in the Core Central Region (CCR) made up another 24% of sales.
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Meanwhile, the Rest of Central Region (RCR) accounted for 22% of sales.
Commenting on the data, Lock says ex-EC new home sales for 8M2025 totalled 7,716 units, 185% higher y-o-y, and account for 96% of her full-year forecast of 8,000 units.
Meanwhile, according to URA’s 2Q2025 price index, private home prices rose 1.8% in 6M2025. This was underpinned by a 3.6% rise in private home prices in the CCR during the same period while prices of private homes in suburban locations edged up 1.4% in 6M2025.
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Lock maintains her expectation for private home prices to increase 0% to 3% in 2025. “According to Singapore Real Estate Exchange (SRX) data, the private resale market also continued to demonstrate strength with a 3.5% price increase in the first seven months of 2025 while private resale volume for the month of July rose 15.1% m-o-m.”
Developers trading at discount
Singapore developers are trading at a 50% discount to their revalued net asset value (RNAV) and 0.62 times 2025 price-to-book value ratio (P/BV).
“While we see value in developers at these levels, a more cautious and tempered macroeconomic outlook could cap significant share price outperformance over the next 12 months.,” she adds.
Among the developer names listed on the Singapore Exchange (SGX), Lock’s preferred sector pick is UOL Group. “We believe its robust balance sheet could enable it to tap into more acquisition opportunities, while the redevelopment of Clifford Centre could create more value within its commercial property portfolio.”
Lock has an “add” call and an $8.20 price target on UOL, which she says has “high recurring income base, supported by rentals, hotel operations and investment holdings”.
In addition, UOL has ”good office exposure” through its subsidiary, the separately-listed Singapore Land Group. UOL is trading at a 43% discount to RNAV.
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Lock’s other top picks are CapitaLand Investment (CLI) and City Developments (CDL), which both have an “add” call and target prices of $4.30 and $8.97 respectively.
Growth in CLI’s funds under management, efficient capital deployment and improved operating performance of its investment and lodging properties would likely underpin its return on equity (ROE) expansion and share price re-rating, writes Lock. The stock is trading at a 42% discount to RNAV.
Meanwhile, CDL’s land restocking activities, with a robust launch pipeline over 2025, would extend the visibility of its residential earnings, says Lock. “Its value-unlocking activities and the recovery of the global hospitality industry could catalyse its share price. The stock is trading at a 58% discount to RNAV.”
As at 2.35pm, shares in UOL are trading 5 cents lower, or 0.65% down, at $7.70; while shares in CLI are trading 4 cents lower, or 1.44% down, at $2.73; and shares in CDL are trading 1 cent lower, or 0.15% down, at $6.77.
