MBS delivered a record 4Q2025 performance. VIP rolling volume rose 61.7% y-o-y and 49.3% q-o-q in SGD terms. On mass gaming front, total volumes grew 4.0% y-o-y, with lower slot volumes offset by gains in mass table volumes. Hotel occupancy holding remains strong at 95% occupancy with a 2.7% y-o-y increase in average daily room rates to $1,268.
RWS on the other hand has just launched The Laurus Luxury Hotel in October 2025. But early reviews have been mixed.
"Nonetheless, we believe this premium addition should help attract higher-value VIP traffic. That said, investors may remain sceptical that GENS can replicate a similar outcome in 4Q2025, given the recent trend of VIP market share erosion, which was especially pronounced in 4Q2024," says Chee.
In Chee's view, the share loss back in 4Q2024 was driven less by underlying demand and more by an incomplete VIP proposition while The Hard Rock Hotel and The Forum were under renovation last year, affecting the overall hotel and dining experience. With renovations now completed, he believes RWS is better positioned to win back VIP market share from MBS.
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"On our rough estimates, if RWS simply maintains its VIP market share, it could deliver around $30 million of Ebitda upside, equivalent to about a 3% uplift to our FY2025 estimate, which is broadly in line with consensus," says Chee.
As at 3.00pm on Jan 29, shares in GENS are trading at 73 cents.
