"Longer-term growth drivers remain intact, but near-term visibility and catalysts are limited," says Ling in her May 15 note.
"While Venture continues to focus on product innovation and strengthening customer engagement, end-demand volatility and macro uncertainties, particularly surrounding the global tariff landscape, are weighing on short-term visibility.
Ling expects Venture's coming 2QFY2025 and 1HFY2025 earnings to continue to face headwinds in some of its product segments no thanks to broader uncertainty.
However, she believes Venture, with its manufacturing sites in Penang and Johor, is well poised to capture the accelerating China + 1 shift and she therefore expects a stronger second half of the year.
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For now, investors can stay pat that Venture's cash position remains strong, equivalent to 40% of its market cap as of Dec 31 2024, up from just 25% a year ago.
This should support its dividend payout for this current financial year which Ling expects to be kept at 75 cents per share, which works out to an "appealing" yield of 6.7%.
In addition, Venture is stepping up its share buyback plans in a bid to improve returns.
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Jarick Seet of Maybank Securities is similarly highlighting Venture's dividend potential as a bright spot.
"We believe there is share price support until the trade situation improves," says Seet in his May 15 note.
However, Seet warns that Ventures faces an "uphill" task to maintain its margins.
Nonetheless, with US cutting tariffs - at least for 90 days - he has revised his earnings assumption for the company, leading to a higher FY2025 and FY2026 earnings estimate.
While keeping his "hold" call given the uncertain outlook, Seet now figures Venture is worth $10.60, up from $9.40.
John Cheong and Heidi Mo of UOB Kay Hian, meanwhile, have kept their "hold" call but with a reduced target price of $12.01 from $13.35.
"The broad consensus amongst Venture’s customers is that the ongoing tariff situation has created significant uncertainty in the global economic environment, with no clear visibility in the tariff landscape over the next 12 months," state the analysts in their May 15 note.
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They have trimmed their FY2025 to FY2027 earnings forecasts by 9% and 14% respectively to take into account weaker customer demand amid the ongoing tariff uncertainties.
Their target price of $12.01 is based on Venture's long-term earnings multiple of 15.3x, to factor in the continued delay in recovery due to various geopolitical uncertainties.
William Tng of CGS International describes the outlook for Venture this year to be "challenging", but has kept his "hold" call, if not for the 6.7% dividend yield, and support from the company's net asset value of $10.11 per share.
In his May 15 note, Tng says he had previously given a 12.1x earnings multiple, which was the level traded by Venture back in the 2007 to 2009 Global Financial Crisis years.
He has now tweaked the valuation multiple to 13.1x FY2026 earnings, which is 0.5 s.d below the company's 20-year average.
"We use 0.5 s.d. below average to balance the possibility of better q-o-q net profit in 2QFY2025 against the still-cautious FY2025 demand outlook for the group," says Tng, whose new target price is now $10.97, slightly raised from $10.13.
For Tng, upside risks include new product launches by customers and also better-than-expected revenue opportunities as business opportunities emerge from companies diversifying their production from China to Malaysia.
On the other hand, downside risks include potential supply chain disruptions affecting the availability of parts and components it needs, and a worsening global economic outlook potentially reducing orders from its customers even further, as well as further cuts to healthcare spending and grants to universities in the US resulting in lower demand for its life science customers.
