Singtel has since taken remedial actions that include sacking and or disciplining its employees involved.
"While a fine looks likely, we believe the stock reaction has been overdone," state the analysts, pointing to the drop of some $1.5 billion in market cap following the news.
"Precedents of similar offences by Telstra had resulted in a manageable A$50 million fine in 2021," add Pineda and Hilado, referring to Australia's incumbent telco.
"As such, we do not see this event as materially disrupting operations and earnings or dividends. We thus see minimal risk to Singtel's 6% yield outlook," they add.
The Citi analysts' $3.60 target price on the stock is derived using a sum-of-the-parts valuation.
However, downside risks to their view include first, Singtel’s benchmark stock status renders it vulnerable to broader market sell-downs.
Next, volatility in regional currencies which may result in varying Singdollar translation of earnings and value.
See also: UOBKH says ‘size matters’ on ‘overweight’ data centre REITs, but downgrades MINT to ‘hold’
In addition, Singtel might incur potential earnings risks linked to new expansion areas such as enterprise services.
On the other hand, upside risks include continued monetization of assets such as data centres and enterprise assets, which could allow for asset revaluations.
Additional improvement in competition in key growth engines such as Indonesia and India is another potential plus point.
Last but not least, a significant easing of interest rates would bring back interest into yield plays.
Singtel as at 11.34 am, changed hands at $3.12, up 0.65% for the day thus far.
