At the same time, stocks that have exposures of over 10% to Vietnam, Malaysia and Thailand, may be negatively impacted. These are: Aztech, Food Empire Holdings , Frencken, Hong Leong Asia , Oversea-Chinese Banking Corporation (OCBC), Riverstone, Thai Beverage (ThaiBev), Venture Corp (or VMS), Frasers Property Limited, Keppel, Nanofilm, Sea and Grab. Vietnam, Malaysia and Thailand have been slapped with tariffs of 46%, 24% and 36% respectively.
Meanwhile, Lock and Lim have highlighted counters such as Sats and Yangzijiang Shipbuilding as names with “choppy sentiment” stemming from the direct impact from tariffs. Sats, in particular, could be affected by the higher costs from the expiry of the de minimis tariff exemptions on May 2.
The exemptions allow small packages worth up to US$800 from China and Hong Kong to enter the US duty free. The end of the exemptions could “potentially lead to higher costs, which in turn leads to dampened demand of cargo going into the US”.
“Based on Sats’ 9MFY2025 [ended Dec 31, 2024] disclosures, cargo contributed to 50% of group revenue, of which 31% of cargo processed, were attributed to the Americas,” the analysts write. “We estimate that Sats has up to 15% revenue exposure to US cargo. However, we expect the impact on profitability to be partially mitigated given a lack of readily available substitutes of similar affordability for imported goods such as fast fashion products into the US, with cost being absorbed by consumers.”
For the tech manufacturing stocks under CGSI’s coverage, the analysts also see impact to their business, although most are “still assessing the potential impact from these tariffs”.
The impact may stem from trade tariffs, the prospect of a trade war, which could lead to a global recession and lowering demand for goods. These counters may also be affected by the tariffs imposed on Malaysia and Vietnam, where production diversification has taken place, the analysts opine.
So far, responses from the same tech companies include absorption of the tariffs within the supply chain and passing it along the production process. “All the companies surveyed will be working closely with their customers to navigate the tariff challenge.”
On the economic front, while Singapore is slapped with just the base tariff rate of 10% on its exports to the US compared to its regional peers, the analysts believe negative spillover is likely with other key Singapore exports to the US affected. So far, only semiconductors and pharma products are excluded. Among the exports, machinery, including medical apparatus & precision engineering equipment, as well as ships, boats & other floating structures ,will be affected.
“According to the Asean+3 Macroeconomic Research Office (AMRO), over time, a sharp increase in protectionism could lower regional growth by one [to] two percentage points over 2026/2027, the worst since the Asian Financial Crisis (excluding pandemic years). Singapore’s GDP growth outlook may come in at the lower end of the current official “1.0% to 3.0%” range forecast, in our view,” the analysts note. “We currently forecast +2.5% GDP growth for 2025.”
Charts: CGSI
