Mapletree Industrial Trust
Price target:
DBS Group Research ‘buy’ $2.60
‘Mispriced’ by investors; balanced exposure ‘ignored’
Mapletree Industrial Trust (MINT) is a “resilient dividend anchor” and its recent share price weakness is “mispriced”, say DBS Group Research analysts Derek Tan and Dale Lai.
MINT’s unit price has declined 7.14% year to date but is up nearly 2% over the past month.
Investors were perhaps rattled by concerns over dividend sustainability amid expected non-renewals and capital value risk in the US, note the analysts. However, Tan and Lai believe the manager has successfully renewed or back-filled 70% of expiries over the past two years, “demonstrating the continued relevance of their assets to enterprise needs”.
Nevertheless, potential divestments to optimise the portfolio could help to manage overall risk, add the analysts. “Furthermore, new contributions from Japan, selected US assets and a focus on lease-up at Hi-Tech Park @ Kallang will be key in driving upside surprises to our estimates.”
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Still, DBS Group Research has lowered its target price to $2.60 from $2.75 while maintaining “buy” on MINT.
MINT’s unit price has underperformed the REIT index, note Tan and Lai, but recent market talk of MINT’s “ageing” data centre assets and potential downside risks to earnings are “not new”.
“We believe investors are overly discounting the portfolio’s overall resilience. Trading at FY2026–FY2027 yields of 6.4% and a P/B ratio of 1.2 times, which are below the historical mean, we see value in MINT and recommend investors revisit MINT at current levels,” they add.
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MINT’s portfolio has continued to deliver resilient earnings over the years and has consistently delivered earnings exceeding both the estimates of DBS and consensus, add the analysts.
MINT’s financial year ends on March 31. “The recent 9M2025 results further reinforced this trend of steady portfolio occupancy and positive rental reversions of 9.8% across most property segments in Singapore,” say Tan and Lai. “9M2025 distributable income was also 80% of our full-year estimates, suggesting that full-year performance is likely to post a strong beat.”
Considering the strong operational results, DBS has revised its estimates, raising distribution per unit (DPU) by 3% in FY2025 and lowering it by 4% to 7% in FY2026–FY2027 to account for “more conservative occupancy assumptions”.
Tan and Lai believe investors “largely ignored” MINT’s balanced geographical exposure — at 47% in Singapore, 7% in Japan and 46.1% in the US — which offers “stable returns across market cycles”.
Despite the widely-anticipated vacancies in MINT’s US data centre portfolio, DBS thinks the REIT’s Singapore and Japan properties balance the overall income profile.
In FY2027, while the major lease expiry from AT&T at San Diego amounting to 3% of revenues remains the key uncertainty, DBS believes that the shortfall can also be compensated by continued lease-up at Hi-Tech Park @ Kallang Way, leading to stability for overall distributions.
In Singapore, portfolio occupancy rates have remained resilient at 93% to 94%, with 5% to 9% reversions, note Tan and Lai.
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MINT offers good value on various valuation metrics, they add. “MINT offers good value at the current level, with potential upside ranging from $2.32 [to] $2.60, supported by historical trading range. With MINT’s earnings expected to exceed consensus, we see a lift in the stock’s overhang.” — Jovi Ho
CNMC Goldmine
Price target:
SAC Capital ‘buy’ 45 cents
Stronger FY2025 net profit
SAC Capital analyst Matthias Chan has kept his “buy” call on CNMC Goldmine at a higher target price of 45 cents from 33 cents as the group’s FY2024 ended Dec 31, 2024 results met his expectations.
In FY2024, CNMC’s revenue and net profit grew 25% y-o-y and 104% y-o-y, respectively.
Chan writes in his March 13 report: “This was primarily driven by significantly higher base metal prices and improved production margin. FY2024 average realised gold price was US$2,455 ($3,276) per ounce versus FY2023’s US$1,960 per ounce.”
On CNMC’s Sokor gold project, Chan expects the RM9 million ($2.7 million) investment funded through internal resources to increase the group’s processing capacity by 60%, from 500 tonnes to 800 tonnes daily.
He continues: “It is expected to be completed by 1HFY2025. We have conservatively assumed 60% of the increased capacity, only 20% is recognised in FY2025 and 40% in FY2026. A further 10 percentage points increase will lift our FY2025 net profit forecast by close to 10%.”
The analyst also expects gold prices to stay elevated in the foreseeable future, attributing it to the continued imposition of tariffs by the US, which exerts upward pressure on global inflation.
“Typically, gold performs well in such a scenario. Additionally, ongoing geopolitical tensions—including conflicts in Europe and the Middle East, could further enhance gold’s appeal as a safe-haven asset,” writes Chan.
Overall, the analyst has lifted his FY2025 net profit forecast by 21% to US$12.75 million to reflect stronger sales and higher base metal prices. He adds that investors can also look forward to dividend yields of 5% to 8% over the next two years. — Douglas Toh
Singapore Post
Price target:
Maybank Securities ‘buy’ 77 cents
Rental income boost following operations consolidation
Singapore Post’s plan to consolidate its operations at its Tampines eComm logistics hub will free up space at headquarters SingPost Centre (SPC) from which potential leasing revenue of some $9 million can be generated, says Maybank Securities Jarick Seet.
The company has announced a $30 million plan to boost its e-commerce logistics capacity, which has now run out of Tampines. SingPost Centre is for sorting mail — a dwindling business — and smaller parcels.
The consolidation, expected by the middle of next year, will free up about 83,000 sqft of industrial space at SPC, opening up more leasing opportunities, suggests Seet in his March 17 note.
“If all operations are shifted there, about 376,000 sqft or so of industrial space could be freed up, representing an estimated $9 million leasing opportunity annually based on $2 psf,” Seet estimates.
The company could also apply for a conversion of land use from industrial to office or retail, which would lift SPC’s valuation significantly. However, this move would require regulatory approvals.
Currently, out of SPC’s 1.47 million sqft in gross floor area, 37% is classified industrial, 45% office and the rest retail.
SingPost’s move to consolidate the logistics operations came on the same day shareholders approved the sale of its key Australia unit FMH for $867 million. The deal is slated for completion by the end of this month.
Proceeds will be used to pay down debt, reinvest for new growth and be distributed to shareholders as special dividends.
In the meantime, the company is continuing its talks with the government to develop a new business model to stem the structural decline of its domestic mail operations.
“While we expect SingPost’s international and Singapore businesses will continue to face challenges, the key for us remains the asset monetisation angle with potential for special dividends,” says Seet, who is keeping his “buy” call and 77 cents target price. — The Edge Singapore
Sheng Siong Group
Price target:
UOB Kay Hian ‘buy’ $1.92
Bigger market share but higher costs
Sheng Siong Group’s FY2024 ended Dec 31, 2024 earnings missed the expectations of UOB Kay Hian, but the company is expected to expand further at the expense of competitors. It has maintained a stable payout ratio and strong cash flow generation, prompting analysts John Cheong and Heidi Mo to keep their “buy” call on the stock.
However, Sheng Siong might see higher costs, with staff costs likely to stay elevated from new hires and the progressive wage model structure. As such, they have slightly trimmed their target price from $1.93 to $1.92.
In FY2024, Sheng Siong had to bear a 10% jump in staff costs, equivalent to 15.4% of its revenue, versus 14.6% in FY2023. On the other hand, thanks to a more favourable sales mix, gross margin improved marginally to 30.5%.
In their March 18 note, Cheong and Mo observe that Sheng Siong’s revenue growth of 5% in FY2024 has continued to surpass the industry’s average, which implies it is gaining market share.
In 2024, the company opened six new stores, bringing the total in Singapore to 75. Thus far this year, it has opened two new stores and is awaiting the outcome of eight HDB tenders.
“We note that four of these tenders were given up by peers, meaning that single-store sales have increased opportunities to secure new stores. Hence, we have raised our 2025 store openings forecast from three to five,” the analysts state.
According to Cheong and Mo, the higher headcount needed to support the new stores will result in higher staff costs, which lead to a 2% cut in their earnings estimated for FY2025 and FY2026.
A popular theme for investing in consumer staples stocks here, such as Sheng Siong, is government support in various vouchers for each household. However, the UOB Kay Hian analysts do not see a significant lift in Sheng Siong’s earnings from these handouts.
“While some peers are offering promotions to encourage Singapore citizens to use these vouchers at their stores, Sheng Siong is not doing so to the same extent.” However, they anticipate some revenue boosts closer to the voucher expiration dates.
Cheong and Mo see Sheng Siong maintaining its dividend payout ratio of 70%, given its strong cash position of $353 million. For the whole of FY2024, the company is paying 6.4 cents per share, a slight increase from 6.25 cents paid for FY2023.
The revised target price of $1.92 is pegged to the same FY2025 earnings multiple of 20 times, or its five-year average mean P/E. “We remain positive on Sheng Siong Group as its store count continues to drive its top-line growth and it outpaces industry growth,” the analysts state. — The Edge Singapore
Frencken Group
Price targets:
Maybank Securities ‘buy’ $1.34
RHB Bank Singapore ‘buy’ $1.48
Bigger order volume, but margins fell short
Maybank Securities analyst Jarick Seet has kept his “buy” call on Frencken Group with a higher target price of $1.34 from $1.20, with indications of bigger order volume from its customers riding the recovery of the semiconductor sector.
Seet’s new target price is based on a blended 12 times FY2025 and FY2026 earnings instead of just 12 times FY2025 earnings to standardise his valuation methodology across Singapore’s semiconductor players.
Seet, who calls Frencken his top pick in the Singapore tech space, expects orders to increase by 30% from a key European customer in 1HFY2025 ending June, followed by a US customer in the second half.
“We believe the outlook for 1HFY2025 to be stronger than we initially expected and will likely benefit more if the highly anticipated semiconductor recovery happens in 2HFY2025,” says Seet, who adds that there will be more clarity in April and May.
Frencken is also considering a capacity expansion of $40 million to $60 million in Singapore to support the expansion of one of its key semiconductor customers here. A new facility in the US will be inaugurated by June, which will expand capacity and help Frencken capture new future opportunities.
“We continue to like Frencken and believe it will remain a key beneficiary of the recovery of the semiconductor industry. However, with the ongoing macro uncertainty and Trump’s tariffs, we believe customer demand may be impacted,” says Seet.
Upsides noted by the analyst include stronger-than-expected semiconductor and industrial automation contributions, robust margin accretion from new products, improved efficiencies, and institutional interest, which could help the stock re-rate towards peers’ valuations.
Conversely, downsides include a drop in demand, supply chain disruptions that impede Frencken’s production ability and revenue recognition, and a lower-than-expected dividend payout.
In contrast to Seet’s increasingly bullish stance, RHB Bank Singapore analyst Alfie Yeo now has a more restrained view. Yeo has similarly kept a “buy” call on the stock, but has cut his target price to $1.48 from $1.71, citing lower margins fetched in FY2024.
“Although Frencken showed revenue and earnings growth, 2HFY2024 h-o-h acceleration and margin improvement in FY2024, the results trailed our expectation. While revenue exceeded our forecast by 3%, net profit and earnings before interests and taxes (ebit) were below our expectations by around 15% due to lower-than-expected margins.”
With this, Yeo has now recalibrated his margin forecast to the current run rate, which results in a 13% reduction to FY2025 and FY2026 earnings estimates.
He expects revenue growth to be more positive, led by continued recovery in the semiconductor segment, with order momentum from customers continuing to build up this year.
“That has led us to raise our FY2025 and FY2026 revenue by 3% each. Despite the net profit cut, we remain positive on earnings recovery, albeit at a slower pace,” writes Yeo. — Douglas Toh
Q&M Dental
Price target:
PhillipCapital ‘buy’ 40 cents
Higher dividend, share buybacks
Paul Chew of PhillipCapital has kept his “buy” call on Q&M Dental Group , following the turnaround shown by its FY2024 ended Dec 31, 2024 earnings that exceeded his expectations.
Q&M’s 2HFY2024 revenue was down 4% y-o-y with the closure of a subsidiary’s lab.
However, adjusted patmi was up 20% y-o-y to $10.8 million as losses in other units narrowed and employee costs lowered.
Besides a 32% higher second interim dividend of 0.7 cents, the company plans to buy back 50 million shares.
Sensing that the company’s clinics are poised to generate better earnings, along with a turnaround in its subsidiaries, Chew has raised his target price from 36 cents to 40 cents, pegged to 18 times FY2025 earnings, in his March 13 note.
“There is upside to our earnings if the company pursues a more aggressive acquisition strategy for growth and EM2AI finalises the agreement to sell its software to a network of approximately 1,000 clinics,” says Chew. — The Edge Singapore
City Developments
Price target:
PhillipCapital ‘buy’ $6.02
On ‘road to recovery’
PhillipCapital analyst Darren Chan has maintained his “buy” call on City Developments (CDL) even though the group’s patmi for the FY2024 ended Dec 31, 2024 formed only 70% of his full-year estimates.
The lower-than-expected bottom line was attributed to the timing of profit recognition under CDL’s property development segment and a 21% increase in interest expenses, says Chan. The analyst’s March 17 report comes after CDL executive chairman Kwek Leng Beng dropped the legal charges against a group of board directors led by his son, group CEO Sherman Kwek. No further mention was made about the two-week-long saga.
Instead, Chan noted that CDL was on the “road to recovery” as he sees green shoots emerging within the Singapore property market, with high take-up rates for new launches.
“We are optimistic about the Zion Road project, even though buyers are mostly Singaporeans or PRs, as the 60% additional buyer’s stamp duty (ABSD) continues to deter foreigners,” he writes.
While the analyst has lowered his FY2025 patmi estimates by 38% to factor in higher interest costs and construction delays, he sees bright spots in CDL monetising its assets, establishing a fund management franchise and strengthening its recurring income streams.
Chan adds that strong take-up rates of launched projects, asset monetisation initiatives (AEIs) and redevelopments are also key earnings drivers for the group and may support the recovery in its share price.
The analyst also expects low- to mid-single-digit revenue per available room (RevPAR) growth in FY2025 across CDL’s hotel portfolio amid positive momentum within the hospitality sector.
In FY2024, CDL’s profit before tax (PBT) for its hospitality segment rose 2.6% y-o-y due to a 2.6% increase in portfolio RevPAR of $172.50 and a 0.5% increase in gross operating profit margin. To Chan, the group’s planned divestments could also help lower its gearing.
With these factors in mind, the analyst lowered his revalued net asset value (RNAV) target price to $6.02 from $6.87, representing a 45% discount to his RNAV of $10.95.
Other analysts had downgraded their calls and target prices when the group released its results on Feb 26, the same day the dispute first made headlines. — Felicia Tan
Apac Realty
Price target:
RHB Bank Singapore ‘buy’ 48 cents
Stronger residential sales plus dividend cushion
Apac Realty, which runs the ERA property agency, reported FY2024 ended Dec 31, 2024 earnings dropped 39% y-o-y. Nonetheless, Vijay Natarajan of RHB Bank Singapore is keeping his “buy” call on this counter given its attractive valuation of 11 times FY2025 earnings and a 7% dividend yield which should cushion downside risks.
Given strong earnings growth this year due to the strong resurgence in Singapore residential volume, Natarajan has raised his FY2025 earnings estimate by 8% and FY2026 earnings by 7%, leading to a higher target price of 48 cents from 42 cents.
“Concerns from possible cooling measures impact are mitigated by genuine underlying pent-up demand and tailwinds from moderating interest rates, which will likely continue to support the residential market,” says Natarajan in his March 17 note.
Since the start of the year, some 3,300 private homes have been sold, exceeding 50% of last year’s figure. Natarajan expects new private home sales to reach a total of between 9,000 and 10,000 units this year.
In addition, there is already strong revenue to be booked from homes sold in 4QFY2024, after factoring in the usual time lag of two to six months.
Furthermore, resale and rental markets are also expected to remain relatively resilient, with an anticipated growth of 5%–10% y-o-y.
Natarajan notes that ERA’s estimated market share slightly dipped by 0.5 percentage points in FY2024 to 35% of total residential transaction value. Still, he expects this to stabilise at current levels as technology and productivity benefits kick in.
Natarajan also notes that ERA’s Singapore agent count as of Feb 19 was 8,825, down slightly from 8,891 at the beginning of last year, after the company stopped paying agents’ licensing renewal fees amounting to more than $2 million.
According to Natarajan, paying the registration fees on behalf of the agents was part of a strategy in the past seven years to attract a bigger sales force.
The company plans to reallocate resources toward boosting the productivity of agents instead.
“We see this as a step in the right direction and should aid in better profitability over the years,” says Natarajan.
In FY2024, the company plans to pay a total dividend of 2.1 cents, which represents a payout ratio of 79% payout ratio and a yield of 5% yield.
Natarajan is projecting a payout ratio of 80%, which, given the projected jump in FY2025 earnings, will translate into a payout of 3 cents. — The Edge Singapore
iFast Corporation
Price target:
DBS Group Research ‘buy’ $10.88
Tapping Asia’s rising wealth
DBS Group Research Ling Lee Keng has kept her “buy” call on iFast Corporation with a higher target price of $10.88 from $10.23 as she sees the group benefiting from Asia’s rising wealth population.
In Ling’s view, iFast’s current assets under administration (AUA) only account for a “small share” of the wealth management business.
“The total addressable market (TAM) for wealth management platforms in Singapore is substantial and projected to grow significantly in the coming years,” the analyst writes on March 10. “As of 2023, Singapore’s wealth management sector recorded over 10% y-o-y growth in assets under management (AUM) to $5.4 trillion, with a five-year CAGR of around 10%, according to data from the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS).”
In contrast, iFast’s overall AUA as at the end of 2024 stood at $25.01 billion, representing less than 1% of the total AUM in Singapore’s wealth management sector.
iFast’s overall AUA in the same period also account for about 17% of the collective investment schemes (CIS) market sub-segment. The sub-segment, which includes unit trusts, exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and mutual funds, grew by 15% y-o-y in 2023 to an AUM of $146 billion.
With this, Ling sees room for iFast to grow, with the group holding a market share of 60% in Singapore’s wealth management platform market. Competition is also less likely, with “evident” high barriers to entry based on the entrance of three competitors over the past decade. iFast’s other competitors in this space include PhillipCapital’s Poems platform and Grow.
iFast aims for strong AUA growth of reaching $100 billion by 2028 to 2030. “AUA for iFast has grown at a CAGR of 20% between FY2014– FY2024 as the group continues to add new products and services on its platforms,” she writes. However, to reach an AUA of $100 billion, iFast is likely to require inorganic growth drivers such as M&A, she adds.
In Ling’s view, iFast’s UK-based digital bank, iFast Global Bank (IGB), is also deemed to be a valuation catalyst, given its “demonstrated significant growth potential” through its achieving profitability within three years upon iFast’s acquisition.
IGB reported a net profit of $0.3 million in the 4QFY2024, marking a “notable turnaround” from a loss of $2.57 million in 4QFY2023. iFast acquired an 85% stake in UK-based BFC Bank for GBP25 million or $45.9 million in January 2022.
“The acquisition allows iFast to tap into new revenue sources, such as interest from banking products (loans, deposits) and digital banking fees, in addition to its existing wealth management and investment-related revenue streams,” says Ling.
“The scalable nature of the digital bank allows iFast to grow its client base without the same level of infrastructure costs associated with traditional banking models, further enhancing profitability, positioning it as a leading digital financial platform,” she adds.
As at the end of 2024, IGB’s customer deposit also passed $1.01 billion, up 182.6% y-o-y. In the same quarter, gross revenue increased 163.7% y-o-y to $17.2 million, while net revenue rose 136.4% to $7.7 million, Ling notes.
While IGB has no direct peers in the UK, Ling, referring to its closer peers, including Monzo Bank, Starling Bank, Atom Bank, Revolut and Wise, is valuing IGB between $250 million and $1 billion. “Given that IGB is still relatively small currently and disclosure details are still limited, our valuation is based on parameters such as customer deposits, revenue and profitability.”
Finally, Ling sees iFast as a gateway to Hong Kong’s retirement market through the city’s electronic Mandatory Provident Fund (eMPF) and Occupational Retirement Scheme Ordinance (ORSO) retirement schemes.
These are projected to drive iFast’s revenue by nearly 50% in FY2025 and FY2026. The group is also expected to grow earnings by 20% from its Hong Kong business.
“Long-term operational contracts for the eMPF project will ensure a steady revenue stream, with stronger growth anticipated in 2H2025. Similar opportunities in Macau are also being explored,” says Ling.
Ling’s new target price now combines the discounted cash flow (DCF) and sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) valuation to better account for the potential of IGB.
“Our previous DCF model only considered the bank’s top-line revenue, overlooking potential the bank can offer as part of the ecosystem,” she writes, adding that the DCF model is kept for iFast’s current wealth management business. — Felicia Tan
Delfi
Price target:
UOB Kay Hian ‘hold’ 82 cents
Earnings missed expectations
UOB Kay Hian analysts have lowered their target price for Delfi following FY2024 ended Dec 31, 2024 earnings of US$34 million ($45 million), which missed expectations.
Analysts Heidi Mo and John Cheong have kept their “hold” call on the confectionary manufacturer with a lower target price of 82 cents, down from 86 cents.
To recap, Delfi’s earnings of US$34 million for FY2024 formed 91% of the analysts’ full-year forecast. The earnings miss was due to higher-than-expected promotion spending and a weaker rupiah against the US dollar.
“Together with a less favourable product mix of increased lower-margin agency brands contribution of 44% (vs 42% in 2023), we see margin compression, with gross and ebitda margins contracting 1 percentage point (ppt) y-o-y and 2 ppts y-o-y respectively,” the March 11 note reads.
Delfi faced a “continued revenue decline” of 7% y-o-y but was more moderate at 4% y-o-y, excluding the effect of weaker regional currencies against the US dollar.
Mo and Cheong note that Delfi’s competitors continue to offer frequent discounts and promotions in 2HFY2024 to fuel long-term growth and stay competitive. This led to market share growth in Indonesia’s SilverQueen and Cha Cha brands.
Meanwhile, cocoa prices continue to be much higher than they have historically been, leading to Delfi’s management raising prices for select brands by about 7%.
However, the analysts note that the group maintains its commitment to return value to shareholders by keeping an absolute dividend of 3.24 US cents per share. This is backed by its strong balance sheet of cash of US$43.8 million and operating cash flow of US$52.6 million.
Mo and Cheong cut their earnings estimates for FY2025 and FY2026 by 21% and 17%, respectively, after lowering their revenue estimates by 2% and 5% on lower brand sales. They also reduce ebitda margin forecasts by 1–2 ppts as they expect selling and distribution costs to remain high due to stiff competition.
They are maintaining a “hold” with a 3% lower target price based on a higher P/E-based valuation of 12 times earnings per share, pegged to 0.5 standard deviations below Delfi’s historical mean P/E to reflect earnings near the bottom of the cycle. — Nicole Lim
CapitaLand Investment
Price target:
PhillipCapital ‘buy’ $3.65
Firmer recurring income stream
CapitaLand Investments (CLI) reported lower earnings in FY2024 ended Dec 31, 2024 that came in below the expectations of Paul Chew of PhillipCapital.
However, Chew has maintained his “buy” call on this stock along with a higher target price of $3.65 from $3.38, given how CLI has built up a stronger recurring income stream along with improved ROE and a lighter balance sheet.
In FY2024, CLI divested assets worth $5.5 billion. This leaves its balance sheet with $4.3 billion, including $3 billion worth of China assets slated for divestment. The lighter balance sheet translates into additional resources to reinvest.
Fee-driven earnings now contribute 62% of operating patmi, up from 54% in FY2023. On the other hand, CLI made $5.4 billion worth of investments, including Wingate and SC Capital Partners.
“This highlights CLI’s ability to redeploy divestment proceeds into high-conviction themes to drive growth,” says Chew.
Also, CLI plans to grow its funds under management (FUM) by at least $5 billion organically, in line with or exceeding FY2024 levels achieved through acquisitions by its REITs and new fund offerings.
For now, FUM were up 18% y-o-y to $117 billion in FY2024, driven by organic and inorganic growth of $5 billion and $13 billion, respectively.
Chew expects event-driven fees from the listed and private funds platforms to pick up in FY2025 from more transactions as market conditions improve.
Lodging management fees are also poised for growth. Besides a slightly higher RevPAU of 6% in FY2024, CLI opened 11,700 units in FY2024, up from 9,600 in FY2023. There were also 15,000 units signed.
Not all indicators are positive. “Operating conditions in China remain challenging, with negative rental reversions seen across all sectors,” warns Chew.
With a low debt-to-equity ratio of 0.39 times, CLI has the capacity for acquisitions to reach its goal of $200 billion in FUM through M&As and new fund launches. — The Edge Singapore
